Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Impact of Shale Gas on Seismic Activity

Impact of Shale Gas on Seismic Activity Is shale gas development responsible for increased seismic activity? 1. Introduction In recent years, shale gas has become the notorious poster child of the fossil fuel industry (Sovacool, 2014). Proponents tout it as being the answer to current energy needs given that it is available in abundance and has a lower carbon footprint than other fossil fuels e.g. coal and oil (Sovacool, 2014). Contrary to this, opponents have a firm stance against shale gas development, having concerns about its environmental impact. Shale gas has come under fire once again as a link between fracking and earthquakes has stirred up public emotions (Walsh, 2014). There has been a dramatic increase in the number of seismic events in the central and eastern regions of the United States. The US has seen over 300 earthquakes of magnitude 3.0 on the Richter scale over a period of three years (2010 to 2012) in comparison to an average of 21 events per year over the last three decades (Ellsworth, 2013). In several states such as Oklahoma, Colorado, Texas, Arkansas and Ohio these increased seismic events have been linked to underground injection of waste water from shale gas developments (Ellsworth, 2013). In the United Kingdom hydraulic fracturing at Preese Hall near Blackpool has been linked to two earthquakes of magnitude 2.3 and 1.5 on the Richter scale (Green, Styles Baptie, 2012). There are a number of procedural steps required for shale gas development that include the following: road and well pad construction, well drilling, casing, perforating, hydraulic fracturing, completion, production, abandonment and reclamation. This essay focuses on the underlying potential of hydraulic fracturing and underground waste water disposal to trigger seismic activities. Despite seismic activities being recorded at only a handful of the numerous shale gas development sites, the evidence indicates that increased seismic activity can be linked to shale gas development (Ellsworth, 2013). Even though the magnitude of these earthquakes are on the scale of being nuisances rather than catastrophes (Sovacool, 2014), there is a growing interest into understanding the cause of these events and the mitigation strategies to avoid larger catastrophes in terms of earthquakes or surface damage. 2. Induced Seismicity Induced seismic events are earthquakes triggered by human activity such as injecting fluids into rock formations for waste water disposal and hydraulic fracturing (National Research Council, 2013). Induced events have a much smaller magnitude than naturally occurring events and are therefore not usually felt on the Earth’s surface (Davies et al, 2013). Induced earthquakes take place when changes occur in the pore pressure-the pressure of fluid in the pores and fractures of rock-due to injection or withdrawal of fluids from the Earth’s subsurface. This change in pressure alters the stress on nearby faults, causing them to slip creating a seismic event. There are many factors that contribute to the magnitude and likelihood of an induced earthquake which include the injection rate, fluid pressure, fluid volume and injection duration (Davies et al, 2013). Since there is no physical difference between naturally occurring earthquakes and induced earthquakes it is difficult to determine the origin of a seismic event (National Research Council, 2013). A study conducted by Davis and Frohlich (1993) proposed criteria that have to be met in order to consider an earthquake as induced. These are: 1. Are these events the first known earthquakes of this character in the region? 2. Is there a clear correlation between injection and seismicity? 3. Are epicentres near wells (within 5km)? 4. Do some earthquakes occur at or near injection depths? 5. If not, are there known geologic structures that may channel flow to sites of earthquakes? 6. Are changes in fluid pressures at well bottoms sufficient to encourage seismicity? Based on these criterion the seismic activity in Dallas Fort Worth, USA was attributed to disposal of waste water from fracking activities (Frohlich et al, 2010) and the earthquakes at Preese Hall, UK were linked to hydraulic fracturing (Green, Styles Baptie, 2012). Figure 1 shows the 198 recorded global induced seismic events (Davies et al, 2013:p.178). Out of the 198 examples of induced seismicity hydraulic fracturing accounts for only 3 instances of ‘felt seismicity’ (seismic activity above magnitude 2.0 on the Richter scale) and waste water disposal, specifically from shale gas activities, also accounts for only 3 ‘felt’ seismic events (Davies et al, 2013). Figure 1. Frequency vs. magnitude for 198 published examples of induced seismicity (Davies et al, 2013:p.178) 3. Seismic activity due to hydraulic fracturing Hydraulic fracturing is the technique used to extract gas from ‘shale rock’ formations. Shale rock has large quantities of methane which are trapped in it due to its low permeability (The Royal Society and The Royal Academy of Engineering, 2012). In order to release the gas, fracking fluid is injected at high pressures to create fractures, increasing permeability of the rock and allowing gas to flow out. Micro-seismic events (less than magnitude 2 on the Richter scale) are often associated with the creation of faults in hydraulic fracturing, however their magnitude is too small to be felt on the surface (Davies et al, 2013). In the event of the presence of a pre-stressed fault near the fracked well a larger seismic event can occur although its magnitude will have an upper limit of 3 on the Richter scale (Green, Styles Baptie, 2012). The magnitude of induced seismicity is directly proportional to the surface area of the fault and degree of stress on the fault (The Royal Society and The Royal Academy of Engineering, 2012). The magnitude also depends on the pressure in the well, which is determined by the following factors (The Royal Society and The Royal Academy of Engineering, 2012): Volume of injected fracking fluid Volume of flow back fluid Injection rate Flow back rate The importance of controlling the well pressure can help mitigate seismicity, as seismic events have occurred only at wells where large volumes of fluid have been injected with little or no flow back leading to pressure build up (de Pater Baisch, 2011). The seismic activity observed at Blackpool, UK was linked to the hydraulic fracturing operations underway at Preese Hall due to spatial and temporal correlation (Green, Styles Baptie, 2012). Eisner et al (2011) conducted a study to look into the reasons behind the earthquakes, which concluded that the earthquakes were caused by injection of fracking fluid directly into an adjacent fault. The fluid injection had changed the pore pressure, reduced stress on the fault and caused it to slip resulting in a series of earthquakes. The earthquakes were also measured against the criteria suggested by Davis and Frohlich (1993) to determine whether they were induced or natural events (Eisner et al, 2011): Table 1. Criteria proposed by Davis and Frohlich (1993) to help differentiate between induced and natural seismicity applied to events at Preese Hall (Eisner et al, 2011:p. 21) The table above shows that the criteria were met and hence the events at Blackpool were classified as having been induced by hydraulic fracturing activities at Preese Hall. Mitigation: In order to avoid such events the Department of Energy and Climate Change introduced the following controls and checks for well operators (Department of Energy and Climate Change, 2014): Utilise all geological information available to determine the location of faults before drilling wells to ensure wells are at a distance from existing fault lines. Inject minimum amounts of fracking fluid Constantly monitor seismic activity Introduce ‘traffic light monitoring system’, which determines whether to proceed with injection or not on the basis of seismic activity magnitude. The implementation of these mitigation strategies would help operators assess location of faults before fracking, monitor seismic activity and stop even if minor tremors occur. 4. Seismic activity due to waste water disposal Waste water is a by-product of fracking and is often disposed of by being injected, under pressure, into disposal wells. Waste water injection increases underground pore pressure and weakens nearby faults, lubricating them, and causing them to slip resulting in an earthquake. The magnitude of induced seismic activity from waste water disposal is larger than that of fracking because it involves injection of larger volumes of fluid over a timespan of months or years (as opposed to a few days for fracking) causing greater pressures to build up (The Royal Society and The Royal Academy of Engineering, 2012). The upper limit of magnitude of seismicity induced by disposal in 5 on the Richter scale (Majer et al, 2007). In the USA links between waste water disposal and seismicity were drawn when a cluster of earthquakes were noticed in the Guy-Greenbrier area of Arkansas. Since the first disposal wells became operational in April 2009 this area experienced an increase in the number of magnitude 2.5 (or greater) earthquakes, with one in 2007, two in 2008, ten in 2009 and fifty four in 2010 (Horton, 2012). Horton (2012) reports that 98% of the earthquakes occurred within 6 km of one of the disposal wells, began post-injection, increased when the rate of injection increased and tapered off when the well was shutdown. After an extensive study of the area it was noted that the waste water was being injected into an aquifer from where it increased pore pressure on an unknown fault triggering the earthquakes (Horton, 2012). Similar activity was observed in the Dallas Fort Worth area, where 11 ‘non-felt’ (magnitude less than 2 on the Richter scale) seismic events were recorded during the period between the 20th of November and 2nd of December 2008 (Frohlich et al, 2010). The epicentre of all 11 events was less than 0.5 km away from a disposal well thereby causing them to be classified as induced seismic events (Frohlich et al, 2010). Out of the thousands of disposal wells in the US only a handful have displayed seismic activity (Frohlich et al, 2010). The reason for this could be that most of the wells are drilled into porous, permeable rocks suitable for accommodating fluids and that injection induced triggering occurs only if the fluid reaches a favourably oriented fault (Frohlich et al, 2010). Mitigation: The Royal Society and The Royal Academy of Engineering (2012) have suggested steps that could be taken to mitigate the seismic activity due to waste water disposal: 1. Injection into active faults and brittle, non-porous rocks should be avoided 2. Pressure changes at depth should be minimised by reducing volume of fluid to be disposed. This could be done by building more wells to accommodate smaller volumes of fluid or injecting into highly permeable rocks. 3. A ‘traffic light monitoring system’ should be deployed to respond to seismicity. 5. Conclusion After analysis of data from shale gas plays in the US and UK it can be concluded that shale gas development is responsible for the increased seismic activity felt in these regions. It must be noted however that most cases of seismic activity had magnitudes well below what could be felt at the surface (Davies et al, 2013). According to the National Research Council (2013) hydraulic fracturing does not pose a high risk for inducing seismic activity while disposal of waste water into underground wells poses a greater risk due to the injection of larger volumes of waste water for longer durations of time. However, of the 30,000 wells in operation in the US, only 3 wells have displayed ‘felt’ seismic activity (Davies et al, 2013). A balanced approach should be taken while addressing this matter as other human activities (mining and oil recovery) are responsible for far greater incidences of induced seismicity (Davies et al, 2013). In order to allay public concerns and reduce risks associated with seismic activity the government should enforce certain regulations e.g. geological assessment of rock system at well site, deployment of ‘traffic monitoring system’, limitations on volume and rate of fluid injected and limitations on the proximity of wells to active seismic zones or critical facilities (hospitals, schools, nuclear power plants etc.). Coordinated efforts should be made between the government and industry to put in place a mechanism to respond to induced seismic events and gather comprehensive geological data from shale gas development sites to better understand why, how and where these events occur. References Davies, R., Foulger, G., Bindley, A. Styles, P. (2013) Induced seismicity and hydraulic fracturing for the recovery of hydrocarbons. Marine and Petroleum Geology. 45 (0), 171-185. Davis, S. D. Frohlich, C. (1993) Did (or will) fluid injection cause earthquakes? -criteria for a rational assessment. Seismological Research Letters. 64 (3-4), 207-224. de Pater, C.J,Baish,S. (2011) Geomechanical Study of Bowland Shale Seismicity. Eisner,L.,Janskà ¡,E., OprÃ… ¡al,I.,MatouÃ… ¡ek,P. (2011) Seismic analysis of the events in the vicinity of the Preese Hall well. Cuadrilla Resources Ltd. Ellsworth, W. L. (2013) Injection-Induced Earthquakes. Science. 341 (6142). Frohlich, C., Potter, E., Hayward, C. Stump, B. (2010) Dallas-Fort Worth earthquakes coincident with activity associated with natural gas production. The Leading Edge. 29 (3), 270-275. Green,C.A.,Styles,P.,Baptie, B.J. (2012) Preese Hall Shale Gas Fracturing Review and Recommendations for Induced Seismic Mitigation. Horton, S. (2012) Disposal of Hydrofracking Waste Fluid by Injection into Subsurface Aquifers Triggers Earthquake Swarm in Central Arkansas with Potential for Damaging Earthquake. Seismological Research Letters. 83 (2), 250-260. Majer, E. L., Baria, R., Stark, M., Oates, S., Bommer, J., Smith, B. Asanuma, H. (2007) Induced seismicity associated with Enhanced Geothermal Systems. Geothermics. 36 (3), 185-222. National Research Council. (2013) Induced Seismicity Potential in Energy Technologies. Washington, DC, The National Academies Press. Sovacool, B. K. (2014) Cornucopia or curse? Reviewing the costs and benefits of shale gas hydraulic fracturing (fracking). Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 37 (0), 249-264.

Monday, January 20, 2020

Illicit Trade and Drug Trafficking Proving to be a Major Problem Essay

Illicit Trade and Drug Trafficking Proving to be a Major Problem Drug trafficking and illicit trade have proven to be major problems that the international community face as it enters into the twenty-first century. Currently the illegal drug trade market is one of the largest sectors of the modern global economy. Because of this fact, the drug trade is deeply rooted in many nations economic and social cultures, which makes it very difficult to control. Drug trafficking also brings with it the problems of organized crime money laundering, corruption, and violence. In 1999, the United Nations Economic and Social Council warned that the international drug trade was brutal, dangerous, and ruthless for those involved with its actions, as well as those trying to enforce restrictions against it. In the debate over the international illicit drug trade, many have argued that the current situation is based on a supply and demand. The international business of narcotics produces around 400 billion dollars in trade each year, which accounts for almost 10% of all worldwide trade. With that in mind, over the past decades the problem with the illicit trafficking of drugs has been based mainly on the supply of narcotics to the international community. Many nations such as Thailand, Laos, Pakistan, Morocco, Columbia, Peru, and Bolivia are heavily dependant upon the profits of the international drug trade. The United Nations has been continuously involved in stressing the need for governments to reduce production and supply of illicit drugs. However, many nations rely on the profits of the international drug trade as a sustaining force in their economies; this has proven to be a very difficult task. Over time, the problem with illicit drug trade has worsened, over the last decade the production of opium and marijuana nearly doubled, and the production of cocaine tripled. The increase in the demand for drugs, has led to the increase in production of synthetic drugs as well as an increase in the profits for those involved in the drug trade themselves. With the demand for drugs on the rise throughout the international community the time has come for problem solving bodies such as the United Nations to step in and take action. Past United Nations Actions For the past decade the United Nations has been heavily involved in the fight against the illicit drug... ...d NGOs to encourage farmers to reduce the cultivation of illicit opium in favor of alternative crops, but more action needs to be taken.  · Middle Eastern Bloc With the rise of the black market and mafia in certain areas, drug consumption has taken a major rise in recent years. Demand for opium, cannabis, heroin and cocaine have risen drastically. The governments within this region must focus on the stronger law enforcement and restriction of corruption especially in transit countries. . Policy Questions  · What systems or programs does your country support relating to drug trade and control?  · What, if anything, has your country done in the past to help deal with illicit drug trade?  · Does your country rely on illicit drug trade for its economy?  · What has your nation done in collaboration with the United Nations or other independent NGO’s to combat illicit drug trade? Research Here are some good sites for research- http://www.state.gov/g/inl http://www.unesco.org/most/ds22eng.htm http://www.unesco.org/most/ds22eng.htm http://www.unesco.org/most/ds22eng.htm And don’t forget the Mira Costa MUN site http://www.cyberverse.com/~costamun/ GOOD LUCK!

Saturday, January 11, 2020

Explain why dreams and plans are so important in ‘Of Mice and Men’ Essay

George and Lennie are examples of ‘migrant’ or ‘itinerant’ farm workers who fuelled and made possible the intensive farming economy. These men would travel great distances, however they could, often by foot, or by the empty boxcars that were later used to carry the grain they helped to farm. They would receive $2.50 – $3.00 a day, plus board, which meant food and a room. The food would be very basic, the room sometimes not more than a small tent shared with many other workers. Conditions did improve for migrant farm workers at the start of the First World War, because of the industrial action in the USA at that time forced an increase in wages and therefore an increase in the price of grain. But at the time John Steinbeck wrote ‘Of Mice and Men’, advances in technology were rendering many of the farm workers obsolete, because of the improvements in industry and machinery. Before machinery came onto the farm, the mule driver was at the top of the social tree on the ranch, because of his high skills. Slim was this figure in ‘Of Mice and Men’, and he probably commanded a high wage compared to the other ranch workers. The key dream throughout ‘Of Mice and Men’ is the dream that George and Lennie gradually show us. This was the dream of most workers in all of the USA, and George, Lennie, Candy, and all the other workers on the farm all have the same dream, to own a smallholding or a small farm. Such an acquisition would mean that they would be their own boss, and make a basic but good living from their own work, instead of having nothing to show for a lifetime of hard work. America was first populated by people who came from nearly every country of the world, believing that they could escape and find their dreams in the new country where they believed there was no persecution or hatred. Others saw it as an escape from hard poverty or starvation. The American dream was focused on the fact that it represented a dream of wealth and success, and allowed men and women to have a fresh start in another country that they could build themselves. This dream survived until the late 1920’s, when the Wall Street Crash caused the Great Depression to start, and people learned that there was no more land to be bought and farmed. All the intensive farming over the years had caused the ‘dustbowl’, and many people who had borrowed money to build the farms in the dustbowl, could not now repay the money, because of the wasted land, with no farming value. The dream that George and Lennie had was becoming history. The dream of their freedom and independence was doomed right from the start of the novel. When Lennie is being pursued at the end of the book, George recites the dream to Lennie, before he shoots him. Lennie dies at George’s hands, and the dream is just as doomed as Lennie. Lennie, George, Candy and temporarily Crooks all are shown to have the dream of a small farm. It is the dream that was shared by hundreds of ranch hands at the time. The title for the book ‘Of Mice and Men’ by John Steinbeck was taken from the poem by the Scottish poet, Robert Burns. In the poem, Burns writes; The best laid schemes o’ mice and men Gang aft agley And leave us nought but grief and pain For promised joy! ‘Gang aft agley’ means that things ‘often go wrong’ George and Lennie’s dream of owning a small farm does go wrong in the end, even though it looked at one point as if it might work, when Candy joins the idea, and puts forward all his savings. But it just leaves pain and grief instead of joy. What Burns and Steinbeck are both saying is that we can lay our plans carefully, but something will always go wrong. This doesn’t mean that we should stop dreaming, and laying our plans, even though the likelihood of them succeeding is small, we still need those dreams and plans to keep us working and to keep us trying to be better, do better, earn better and have a better quality of living. The idea of mice is also a potent one, because even though Lennie is very large, he is still moved by something even bigger and stronger, in the shape of fate and destiny. Lennie is controlled by George in the same way, even though George is far smaller than Lennie is. The idea of mice is also potent because of the burrowing that mice do to make their nests, only to leave them later, not to return. The same is true for all migrant workers, constantly working to get their own farm, only to have their dreams shattered. They also move on to other places all the time, leaving their ‘burrows’ to move on. This is particularly true with George and Lennie, because of Lennie’s actions throughout the book. The dream is never realised, but much good has come from the dreaming. Each of the characters has their own personal dreams: * George has the dream of owning the farm, and therefore is much more responsible with his money. He shows this in the novel when he is appalled when Lennie drinks ‘scummy’ water at the start of the novel, and does not like the thought that there may be lice in his mattress from the previous inhabitant. But sometimes you also think that he temporarily hates Lennie for the burden caused, and that he wishes that he could be alone to be less responsible for someone who thinks like a child, being an adult. George says,’ God a’ mighty, if I was alone I could live so easy.’ when he is in one of his rages with Lennie. He also seems to think badly of some people and he wishes to hurt them to stop them hurting Lennie, for example, Curley, when he says to Lennie to ‘get’ Curley, and you almost sense joy in his voice. * Lennie is a strange character when it comes to dreams, because the dream of owning a small farm is all that he really remembers. But he also wants to please George very badly, because George is his companion and friend. George describes at one point that he used to tell Lennie to do really stupid things, and then he was forced to realise that Lennie would do anything he said, and could be hurt or killed by his actions. Lennie is also a very clever character, because he plays with George’s conscience, shown by the incident of the mouse being taken by George at the start of the book, first showing Lennie as a simpleton. * Candy dreams of having back his right hand, and being able to have a better job. He is chained to this ranch, because he would not get a job anywhere else. He has lost all control of his life to other people, stronger, younger people, all highlighted by the incident with Candy’s Dog. He dreams of a small farm, and when he hears that George and Lennie are trying for it, he joins them, and tells them that he will give all his life’s savings to have his own land for the rest of his life, and then lose it at the end, but still to have had something to show for all the years of work. * Crooks dreams of freedom. He is a black man, in a white land, where the black people are treated as slaves. The hierarchy is shown in the incident with Curley’s wife, when she says,’ You know what I can do to you if you open your trap?’ He is also crippled, which means that he is even lower in the social hierarchy. But on the ranch, he is seen as a ‘Nice fella’ by Candy, and he is not really looked down upon by most of the characters. On the ranch he is given his own room, be it small and smelly, and he is given respect. He is very intelligent, but he has never had any opportunity to do well in his life. It is in him that we first see that the dream is impossible to really achieve. * Curley’s Wife is seen upon as dangerous by the other ranch workers because she is married to the son of the Boss, and is also married to Curley, who takes every opportunity to have a fight. Curley’s wife is very flirtatious, and has dreamed for many years of being a singer and actress, but never made it. She married the first man who came along and chose badly, and is not really treated as a person by Curley. He is very sexually orientated, as is revealed by the glove of Vaseline he wears, to keep his hands smooth. But had fate dealt her a different hand, and had she married a man who treated her as a person, she would have been a good and loving wife. She is shied away from by all the other ranch hands, but Lennie is too innocent to recognise the danger. All the characters have dreams of their own, as all people do, but in the novel, these are revealed to us. All the dreams of all the people shape the whole book, causing it to become a real story of the ranches, not just a story of a mad man and his clever friend.

Friday, January 3, 2020

Fantasy Sports A Staple Of American Culture - 2520 Words

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